BATON ROUGE — Multiple weather centers have recently released their 2025 Atlantic hurricane season outlooks, predicting another particularly active season, which will officially begin on June 1. State climatologist Jay Grymes spoke to UWK about what these forecasts mean for Louisiana and explained why this season could be another could be another active one.
The Colorado State University TC-RAMS team released its forecast April 3, predicting 17 named storms and nine hurricanes this upcoming season. Of those, the team expects four to reach major hurricane strength, Category 3 or greater.
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Grymes noted that this forecast isn’t surprising, given the hurricane seasons of the past several years. He explained that more active seasons have become the rule, not the exception.
However, a more active season in the Atlantic Basin doesn’t necessarily mean that all the storms will impact the U.S. Gulf Coast. Grymes explained that the Atlantic Basin covers an area from the coasts of Africa to the coast of Mexico, meaning that a storm forming off the coast of Africa might not be a concern for the U.S. Yet, the Gulf of Mexico tends to remain active on its own. Last year, of the 18 named storms, eight ended up in the Gulf, Grymes said.
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“Normally, only about one in three named storms get in the Gulf. And last year, we were closer to 50%, and that’s been a little bit of the trend of late,” he added.
What causes an active hurricane season?
Several factors contribute to the forecast of a more active season. One key factor is that sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Basin are at or above normal, Grymes explained. Additionally, temperatures in the central and eastern Atlantic and the subtropical Atlantic are also above normal.
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These warmer water temperatures favor a more active hurricane season, he said.
The waters of the Gulf are also quite warm right now. Grymes mentioned that extra-warm waters in early spring tend to remain warmer than usual throughout the rest of the season, influencing storms that may head in our direction.
In addition to water temperatures, experts also monitor atmospheric conditions, particularly the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Currently, the atmosphere is signaling a relatively active season, Grymes said.
ENSO fluctuates between El Niño and La Niña phases.
“It looks as if, as we head into the hurricane season, that the ENSO phase will be neutral. So it won’t be El Niño and it won’t be La Niña,” Grymes said back in April. “But neutral and La Niña phases tend to be associated with an uptick of activity.”
With a neutral phase expected to persist through the first half of the hurricane season, there is a higher likelihood of more storms. However, experts will continue to monitor changes in water temperatures during as we continue to inch closer to the start of the season.
The next Colorado State University forecast update for the 2025 season will be released on June 11th.
Hurricane season in Louisiana
Grymes stressed that Louisiana should always be prepared for hurricane season because the state typically doesn’t experience “off years” in terms of hurricanes impacting the area.
“The reality is that Louisiana is one of the hottest landfall threat zones in the basin. Yes, Florida gets hit more, but when we look at landfalls per mile of coastline, Louisiana has a higher ratio of hits per mile of coast than Florida does,” he said. “There’s never a time that Louisiana should let its guard down.”
In the past 20-25 years, storm activity impacting Louisiana has been “off the charts,” Grymes said. Over 24 years, Louisiana has experienced 29 named storms.
“Whatever plans you had in place last year, you need to have this year,” he said.
Staying prepared, even if no storms directly strike the area, is a good rule of thumb. Many preparations, such as purchasing generator equipment or fortifying homes, can be useful for future seasons. Grymes emphasized that early preparation ensures readiness in case a strong storm does strike.
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