BATON ROUGE — If you’re planning to start checking off those Christmas lists over the long holiday weekend, you won’t be alone. The National Retail Federation (NRF) expects nearly 187 million Americans to shop from Thanksgiving Day through Cyber Monday this year. That figure is up more than three million total shoppers from the previous record set last year, according to the NRF.
Spending projections
Louisiana State University associate professor of marketing and behavioral lab director, Dan Rice, said the projections he’s seen for the big holiday shopping weekend indicate people will be spending more. “Every year there’s a projection for increased spending, and depending on who you listen to, the total revenues are expected to go up this year,” Rice explained. “There’s a little bit of a range, but most of them are right around 4%, so total revenue for sales for holiday shopping this year and Black Friday is expected to be in the area of 4% in terms of overall revenue rates.”
While overall projections are up, not everyone is planning to spend more money this year. “What’s interesting this year is that the average plan per person is expected to drop a little bit,” he said. “What that might indicate is they’re hoping to spend less.”
“That could mean there’s just more consumers in the marketplace this year, or it might indicate that there’s some influence of raising prices due to tariffs and inflation,” Rice said.
Economy’s impact on spending
While millions of people are getting ready to start filling their carts and spending, many Americans are on tight budgets.
The NRF conducted consumer surveys, which found consumers are budgeting an average of $890 for gifts and other seasonal items like decorations and food. That number is down from $902 in 2024.
Rice explained that in the U.S., we are seeing evidence of what’s called a two-tier, or K-shaped, economy. “What that means is the people who make a lot of money and are in those high-income brackets are doing really well,” he said. “So those consumers are spending a lot of money on gifts and trips. It’s when you start getting into the middle and lower-income brackets that you start to find real difficulty.”
“What’s probably buoying the overall numbers is those higher incomes. But if you were to look at the middle to lower incomes, you probably see rather drastic reductions in planned spending and the ability to spend,” Rice said. “It’s a unique situation, because a lot of times what you’ll find is is that everybody’s struggling or everybody’s doing well. And that’s just not the case right now in our economy.”
Doorbuster decline
When most people hear the term “Black Friday,” images of long lines wrapped around buildings, people camping out at 3 a.m., and stampedes of shoppers running through store doors are usually the first things that come to mind. But looking back at recent years, the crowds and lines have been dwindling.
Rice thinks a number of things are contributing to the decline in the Black Friday shopping so many of us have grown accustomed to. “COVID has some implication here, because a lot of people couldn’t go out shopping that year, and that led to what we called ‘revenge shopping,'” he explained. “When stores opened back up, people would go out and spend more than they had planned to make up for lost time.”
“What it really did is change the way people shopped, and kind of accelerated the way people used online and offline in conjunction, or would order online to pick up in store.”
Rice also said more people are turning to the internet to shop, noting that more people shopped online last Black Friday than in stores. “I think some people are saying, ‘If I can get basically the same deal online, I’d rather not run around 15 different stores, camp out all night, and have to trample somebody to get the TV for $1,'” he said.
Despite the shorter lines and smaller crowds, people are still heading out to brick and mortars to do their holiday shopping. “I wouldn’t say that it’s entirely that people are losing interest,” Rice said. “Although something like 36% are reporting less interest in Black Friday this year, there’s still 11% that are saying they have more interest.”
Another contributing factor comes from the retailer side. Instead of just having a one-day sale, many retailers are opting for week-long, or even month-long sales. “People want to try and conserve their money and make wise decisions. So sometimes spreading out the timing of the purchases can make sense,” said Rice. “I think it gives consumers, particularly those who are concerned about finances, a little bit more time to decide on these purchases and make purchases that they feel are wise.”
Get the most bang for your buck
When it comes to marking down products, there are legal requirements for what retailers can and can’t do. But there are ways for items to appear to be on a deep discount, when in reality, the deal isn’t as good as it seems.
Rice gave UWK an example. “Say something was listed for $500, and is now $250, making you think you get a discount of 50%. What it might have been is that when this particular product came out, it was actually $500, but then quickly after it dropped in price, and has only been retailing for $270. In those cases, you’re saving about $20. It’s still something, but it’s not nearly as much as the original selling price was,” he explained.
There are ways to make sure you’re getting good deals and discounts. “One of the ways to check yourself is to have something like a price checking app to see what other sellers are selling it for,” Rice said. “Also, keep an eye on the big ticket items, to see what the actual selling price has been over the last few months, or if it’s really big, over the course of the year to see if it really is as good a deal as they say it is.”
Rice’s final takeaway: “Consumers should always know what they’re getting and don’t jump at something just because you think it’s a good deal. Make sure you can afford it and make sure it’s really as good a deal as they say it is.”
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