BATON ROUGE — Like most of you, we’ve seen the social media chatter about the small possibility of snow showing up in south Louisiana this weekend.
And like most of you, we also get excited when snow gets mentioned. We know snow isn’t for everyone, and some of you want no part of what Elsa might bring.
Because this forecast is tricky and still evolving, we don’t want to become social media meteorologists. Instead, we turned to Baton Rouge’s severe weather expert, Jay Grymes, for perspective on the snow chances.
Slim chances for snow, but “we really can’t rule out the potential”
As of Thursday morning, confidence remains low across all four National Weather Service offices serving Louisiana (Shreveport, Jackson, Lake Charles, and Slidell) when it comes to meaningful snowfall potential.
“We really can’t rule out the potential for some flakes and some flurries, but that seems to be somewhat unlikely right now,” Grymes, Louisiana’s state climatologist, told UWK.
Grymes said timing and the lack of overlap between moisture and cold air is the biggest limiting factor.
“Keep in mind, we’re 60-plus hours out,” Grymes said. “Anything that develops won’t be until Saturday night into the pre-dawn hours of Sunday, and if something does develop, it’ll be fairly minimal.”
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Current forecast guidance shows
Current forecast guidance suggests that most of the system’s moisture will move out of Louisiana before the coldest air arrives.
“What we’re kind of thinking is that most, if not all, of the moisture will have exited the state before the really cold air gets here,” Grymes said.
If colder air were to catch up with lingering moisture, impacts would likely be limited and focused.
“If the cold air could catch up to some of that lingering moisture, it would probably impact the southeastern quarter of the state,” Grymes said.
Even in that scenario, meaningful accumulation appears unlikely.
Forget about a repeat of last January
“Anything that falls would be minimal,” Grymes said. “Ground temperatures are likely to be too warm for any kind of real accumulations.”
The one area forecasters will continue to watch closely is elevated roadways, particularly overnight.
“The only place we might have some issues would be elevated roadways, where the cold air was sufficient to drop the temperatures on those bridges enough that maybe some of that snow might try to stick a little bit,” Grymes said.
Still, officials are pushing back firmly on comparisons to last winter’s historic snow event.
“All in all, certainly don’t see much developing with this situation,” Grymes said. “And you can forget about a repeat of last January.”
Grymes and NWS forecasters emphasize that while flurries cannot be completely ruled out, this setup looks far different from the system that produced widespread snow and travel disruptions in January 2025. Any changes to the forecast will continue to be refined as the system gets closer and confidence improves.
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