BATON ROUGE — The National Weather Service is warning of a “generational” flood in parts of the South and Midwest as a series of storms sweep across Louisiana, Mississippi, Texas, Arkansas, and Tennessee. The flood threat is expected to send the Mississippi River in Baton Rouge surging to its highest levels since 2020.
Arkansas, Missouri, Tennessee, and Mississippi are all facing the possibility of a “generational flood event,” with some areas forecast to receive up to 15 inches of rain by this weekend. All of that water will ultimately flow into the Mississippi River.
“While the (Mississippi) River has been falling in recent weeks, a steady rise is on the way,” said state climatologist Jay Grymes. He noted that rising water levels are expected to reach Baton Rouge and New Orleans by early to mid-next week.
The experimental 28-day forecast from the NWS and the Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center shows the river continuing to rise in New Orleans through much of April, Grymes added. That could trigger what’s known as Flood Fight Phase 1, initiated when the Carrollton Gage reaches 11 feet. Phase 2 could follow by the end of the month if levels hit 15 feet.
“For perspective, Baton Rouge is expected to climb above flood stage (35.0 ft) within the next two weeks, with the latest forecast indicating a good chance of the river at the Red Stick climbing to or above 40.0 feet,” Grymes said.
Baton Rouge’s levees are designed to handle river levels between 43 and 46 feet. If the river reaches or surpasses 40 feet, it would mark the highest level seen in the capital city since the spring of 2020, when the water submerged the iconic red “Baton Rouge” letters on the levee and remained above flood stage for 156 days.
The longest period the river has stayed above flood stage was the previous year: 212 days.
During those two years, officials opened the Bonnet Carré Spillway in St. Charles Parish three times in 15 months, an often controversial move aimed at diverting Mississippi River water to protect New Orleans from flooding.
However, opening the spillway sends freshwater into Lake Pontchartrain, disrupting Louisiana’s seafood industry, particularly the state’s valuable oyster and shrimp harvests.
Grymes noted that 2020 was the last time the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers partially opened the Bonnet Carré Spillway.
The year before, in 2019, officials opened the Morganza Spillway for only the third time in history. That decision flooded approximately 25,000 acres of farmland in Louisiana’s Atchafalaya Basin in an effort to prevent the Mississippi River from overtopping levees.
Rising water levels on the Mississippi River can also have significant economic impacts on Baton Rouge and New Orleans. As the river climbs above flood stage, barge traffic, which plays a vital role in commerce along the waterway, can be delayed or disrupted.
Download the Unfiltered with Kiran app from the Apple App Store and Google Play to stay updated on the latest news across the Capital area.
Support UWK and its mission to deliver The News You Deserve. Unfiltered. Become a monthly patron on Patreon today!
