BATON ROUGE — The tropical system in the Gulf has officially been upgraded and named Tropical Storm Arthur as of 10 a.m. on Wednesday. It is expected to bring days of heavy rainfall to South Louisiana starting today, creating the potential for flash flooding, street flooding and rising rivers through the end of the week, the National Hurricane & Weather Centers said.
The center of Tropical Storm Arthur shows winds up to 40 mph with higher gusts at times. “Arthur is moving toward the northeast near 9 mph and an increase in forward speed is expected today. On the forecast track, the low pressure area should move northeastward along the Texas coast today and then move inland over southwestern Louisiana by tonight,” according to the National Hurricane Center.
Arthur is not expected to strength much more before its anticipated landfall. Once its center is over land, it’s expected to dissipate by tonight or early Thursday.
READ MORE: Parish-by-parish updates ahead of potential flooding
“This is primarily a flooding threat rather than a wind threat,” NWS forecasters said, as deep tropical moisture continues streaming into Texas, Louisiana and parts of Mississippi.
Local flood threat
Many locations in south Louisiana could receive between 5 and 10 inches of rain over the coming days, but localized amounts could be much higher where rain bands repeatedly move across the same areas.
The National Weather Service warns that some locations across the state could see between 10 and 20 inches of rainfall before the event ends.
“Tropical Storm Arthur is expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated higher totals near 20
inches, through early Friday from the Mid and Upper Texas coast east-northeast into southern and central portions of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama, along with western portions of Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. This could generate dangerous to life-threatening flash flooding,” according to the National Hurricane Center.
Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area today. Tropical storm force winds, especially in gusts, are possible within the watch area today.
In the Capital Region, Grymes expects the the heaviest rains to stay west and northwest of Metro Baton Rouge. “We’re looking at a swath of heaviest rains that might run from the Lake Charles area through Lafayette and then northward towards St. Francisville,” he said. “Some of the northern portions of the greater Baton Rouge area could see some of the bigger rains.”
“I won’t rule out that somebody gets 10 inches of rain, but that’ll be the exception, not the rule. Three to six inches, maybe three to eight inches of rain between now and Friday evening into Saturday is going to be enough to be generate some nuisance flooding, especially in the usual suspect spots,” Grymes explained. “We’ll have to keep a close eye on the Amite and Comite Rivers and off to our east, the Tickfaw and the Tangipahoa, because given how wet it has been over the last four to six weeks, those rivers could get to or even above flood stage, at least briefly.”
“Four to six inches of rain in four days is no laughing matter,” Grymes continued. “Places that are prone to flooding need to be prepared, but there’s no comparison to what we’re looking at here and what we experienced in 2016.”
Breaking down the forecast
Forecasters expect multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms through at least Friday, with several periods of heavy rainfall possible each day.
Some storms may repeatedly track over the same locations, increasing the risk for significant flooding in vulnerable and low-lying areas.
In addition to heavy rainfall, gusty winds and minor coastal flooding are possible along portions of the Louisiana coast.
The heaviest rainfall is expected through Friday before conditions gradually improve heading into the weekend, although scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain possible.
“Thursday is expected to be the wettest of the four day stretch between now and Friday. Thursday looks like it could be the biggest problem day for the Baton Rouge Metro Area,” Grymes said. “Winds could be an issue, but I think the maximum winds we’re going to see out of this tropical system probably top out at 40 to 45 miles per hour.”
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