Tracking the Tropics
Tracking the Tropics

Tropical Storm Alberto could form soon, NHC watching second tropical disturbance in Gulf

June 18, 2024

BATON ROUGE — Potential Tropical Cyclone One could become Alberto, the first named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. As this storm threatens Mexico and Texas, the National Hurricane Center is also monitoring another area of low pressure that could develop over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico this weekend.

The southern Gulf of Mexico is a common region for tropical formation in June.

“Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of this system
early next week while it moves slowly northward or northwestward,” National Hurricane Center forecasters said.

Potential Tropical Cyclone One

What forecasters are tracking: Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued for coastal Texas from Port O’Connor southward to the Mouth of the Rio Grande. Heavy rainfall and moderate coastal flooding are the primary concerns.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin on Wednesday along portions of the Texas coast. Moderate coastal flooding is likely along much of the Texas coast starting Tuesday morning and continuing through midweek.

“Some increase in strength is likely during the next 36 hours, and the disturbance is forecast to become a tropical storm by Wednesday,” NHC forecasters said.

Potential Tropical Cyclone One

Right behind that storm is another one

The NHC is also tracking another broad area of low pressure that is expected to form over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico this weekend.

“Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of this system early next week while it moves slowly northward or northwestward,” the NHC reiterated.

This is roughly the same area where Potential Tropical Cyclone One developed over the Bay of Campeche.

The NHC estimates a 20% chance for this system to form in the next seven days.

Formation through 48 hours: 10%
Formation through 7 days: 20%

Where is it heading? It’s still too early to know what impacts this storm would have on the Gulf Coast or in Louisiana.

Disturbance Two: Southwestern Atlantic

Additionally, an area of cloudiness and showers located several hundred miles east of the Bahamas is associated with a surface trough and an upper-level low-pressure area.

Environmental conditions could support some gradual development of this system over the next few days as it moves westward or west-northwestward.

The system is forecast to approach the southeastern United States coast by Friday.

“Models continue to be in some disagreement with timing and placement,” according to the NWS long-term forecast. “However most models do agree that an increase in moisture across Florida will occur.”

Formation through 48 hours: 10%
Formation through 7 days: 20%

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