BATON ROUGE — It’s Déjà vu in the Gulf. Forecasters are keeping an eye on another tropical disturbance in the northern Gulf, but experts say the chances of it developing into a tropical cyclone are slim.
The National Hurricane Center is monitoring a trough of low pressure near the southeastern U.S. coast that is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The system is expected to drift west-southwestward into the north-central Gulf over the next day or two.
Although some slow development is possible, the NHC gives the system only a 10% chance of development over the next 48 hours and 7 days.
By the weekend, the disturbance is forecast to move inland near the upper Texas coast, effectively ending any further chance of tropical development. Still, forecasters say the system will bring increased rain chances and unsettled weather to the Gulf Coast.
What to expect
This setup is very similar to what we saw last week with forecasters watching a few models hinting at a weak tropical depression.
Forecasters warn that the combination of daytime heating — heat index values could soar to 115°F today — and the muggy atmosphere will fuel the development of scattered late afternoon thunderstorms across southeast Louisiana.
These storms could bring gusty winds, downpours of 1-2 inches of rain and intense lightning.
The showers and storms will be hit or miss, not a complete washout, but will continue intermittently from Wednesday through Saturday.
Looking ahead
The disturbance is expected to make its way toward the upper Texas coast by late Friday or Saturday. After that, high pressure is forecast to build back in by Sunday, bringing a return to intense heat and mostly dry conditions into early next week.
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